The polling on abortion is “conclusive and overwhelming”. Or that’s what a recent article from The Bulwark claimed in response to Politico’s leaked draft of Justice Samuel Alito's majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson which would overturn Roe v. Wade (and Planned Parenthood v. Casey). The article cited a litany of polls to support his claim. They summarize as:
The public opposes overturning Roe
The public wants to see the holding of Roe codified into law
The public wants “most abortions” to be legal
The public wants abortion access to be easier
But the problem with all these polls is that they’re asking bad questions. When you ask someone if they support Roe, you’re implicitly assuming they correctly understand the holding of Roe. If they don’t understand Roe, then their answer doesn’t accurately tell how they feel about the actual precedent. And we know that Americans don’t understand the holding in Roe. 66% believe that repealing Roe would make abortion illegal everywhere.
Because Americans have a warped perception of Roe, questions about specific abortion policies are more revealing. A recent Fox poll found that 50% of Americans support banning abortions after 6 weeks and 54% support banning them after 15 weeks-- both with exceptions for medical emergencies. YouGov found similar results. 41% of Americans support banning abortion after 6 weeks. 54% support banning it after 3 months. And 64% support banning it after 15 weeks. The YouGov poll did not make specific reference to a medical exception. The Wall Street Journal and AP also found similar levels of support. These positions are all incompatible with Roe.
The same line of logic applies to polls asking unspecific questions about how easy abortion access should be. The paradox of polling on abortion is that vague and unspecific questions generate a pro-choice response from Americans but once they’re asked about specific policies then they’re revealed as much more pro-life.
Exit point: There is a commonly held assumption that views on abortion are highly gendered. This view is particularly common among pro-choicers who think abortion wouldn’t be an issue if men could also get pregnant. Ignoring the blatant transphobia, that simply isn’t true. The abortion debate isn’t driven by men who believe abortion is wrong. The abortion debate is driven by members of both sexes who believe abortion is wrong. The above YouGov poll asked Americans about various points at which they believe abortion should be banned and broke out the responses by gender. YouGov provided 6 different time periods ranging from a total prohibition to permission. At every single time period, the gap between men and women was three points or less. While the specific margin of error for the question was not provided, I have a hard time believing it was less than 3. The gender gap on every question was statistically zero.